Freeguild discover probability

A revolution is taking place within the ranks of the Freeguild following the discovery that certain actions are fundamentally linked to certain probabilities.

“Take the humble crossbowman,” explained Freeguild general Reginald the Oblique. “We have discovered that, no matter the conditions, a bolt fired from their crossbows has a 50% chance to hit. And if it hits, it then has a roughly 66% chance of causing some actual damage. It’s all pretty remarkable.”

The experiments have confirmed that this effect occurs in all weather conditions, against all foes, and in some cases regardless of whether the crossbowman is actually facing their target when the shot is taken. 

“Interestingly there are scenarios where these odds will get affected, but we’ve found this always occurs in blocks of roughly 16%. For example, a lad with a zweihander, if they hit, will chop off a limb around 66% of the time. However, if they get zapped by a Medusa’s magic, then that drops pretty consistently to a 50% chance.”

As we go to print, we have also received news of studies confirming that standing within a certain distance of particularly inspiring individuals can vary these chances wildly. Investigations are being done to confirm the range of this effect, and to identify the individuals responsible.

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